Most life-expectancy calculators are either insurance lead magnets or astrology. This one shows its math: every factor is tied to a published cohort study or meta-analysis, graded by evidence strength. It estimates from population data — which means it describes averages, not your personal fate. That caveat is the point.

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Estimated Life Expectancy

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years · shown as a range, on purpose

Your life-line

Where your years come from

Each bar is one factor's estimated contribution, in years, versus the population baseline. Teal extends right (years gained), rust extends left (years lost). Open "the evidence" under any factor for the study behind the number.

Save your scorecard. We'll send your follow-up plan — how to move your biggest levers — plus a 90-day retake reminder.

Everything above stays free and visible either way. Your number isn't fixed — it moves with your habits. Retake in 90 days and compare.

How this calculator actually works

Your baseline is the Social Security Administration's 2023 period life table — the average remaining life expectancy for a person of your age and sex in the United States. Each lifestyle factor then shifts that baseline by an amount derived from published research: large prospective cohort studies and meta-analyses, converted to years of life expectancy where the study reported them directly, or conservatively translated from mortality hazard ratios where it didn't.

Three honesty mechanisms are built in. First, factors overlap — people who exercise also tend to eat better — so the raw sum of all effects is discounted by 15% and capped near the totals observed in the best combined-lifestyle study (Li et al., Circulation 2018, which found about 12–14 years between the healthiest and least healthy profiles at age 50). Second, effects are scaled by your remaining life expectancy: the same habit moves fewer absolute years at 80 than at 45. Third, the result is a range, not a number — population estimates applied to one person carry real uncertainty, and pretending otherwise is how the astrology versions work.

Strong — replicated, large cohorts Moderate — consistent but fewer studies Suggestive — associational, wide error bars

Sources

Social Security Administration, Actuarial Life Table (2023 period) — the baseline.
Jha P, et al. 21st-century hazards of smoking and benefits of cessation in the United States. N Engl J Med 2013 — smoking.
Moore SC, et al. Leisure time physical activity and life expectancy. PLoS Med 2012; and Arem H, et al. JAMA Intern Med 2015 — aerobic exercise.
Mandsager K, et al. Association of cardiorespiratory fitness with long-term mortality. JAMA Netw Open 2018 — vigorous exercise / fitness.
Momma H, et al. Muscle-strengthening activities and risk of all-cause mortality: meta-analysis. Br J Sports Med 2022 — strength training.
Cappuccio FP, et al. Sleep duration and all-cause mortality: meta-analysis. Sleep 2010 — sleep.
Prospective Studies Collaboration. Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900,000 adults. Lancet 2009 — body composition.
Wood AM, et al. Risk thresholds for alcohol consumption in 599,912 drinkers. Lancet 2018 — alcohol.
Fadnes LT, et al. Estimating impact of food choices on life expectancy. PLoS Med 2022 — diet (we use a deliberately conservative fraction of the modeled maximum).
Holt-Lunstad J, et al. Social relationships and mortality risk: meta-analysis. PLoS Med 2010 — social connection.
Ruby JG, et al. Estimates of the heritability of human longevity are substantially inflated due to assortative mating. Genetics 2018 — family longevity (why the effect is modest).
Atkins JL, et al. Longer-lived parents and cardiovascular outcomes: 8-year follow-up in 186,000 UK Biobank participants. JACC 2016 — family longevity (why it still counts).
Li Y, et al. Impact of healthy lifestyle factors on life expectancies in the US population. Circulation 2018 — the combined-effect calibration.

What this is — and isn't

This tool applies population-level averages from cohort studies to an individual, which no calculator can do precisely. It is for education, not diagnosis, prognosis, or medical decision-making, and it can't account for your genetics, medical history, or medications. Treat the range as a conversation starter — ideally with your physician.